DiplomacyNet

Who Will Clean Up This Mess?

Much has been written about North Korea's behavior of late. The actions have been portrayed, rightfully, as irresponsible, reckless, foolish, and otherwise immoral . What is not yet known, at least what I don't know, is: what part is China going to please in cleaning up this mess.

China has, for several decades now, been actively pursuing a course that would bring it economic and military influence in Asia that rivals US influence in the west. What this crises is revealing is, that if China wants to take this Monroe doctrine-like path, it needs to take the bad with the good, the responsibility with the riches. Indeed, the choices that China has made create a special responsibility for taking actions to reverse the course of events.

China has long been one of North Korea's few allies. North Korea is largely dependent on China for food aid, and economic and political support. Further, it is one of North Korea's very few diplomatic partners. China has taken it's role as North Korea's protector in the UN to such lengths that it has frustrated it's Security Council peers time and again.

Contrary to US opinion, China has believed that by gently coaxing and coddling, they could bring North Korea into line with the rest of the "civilized" world. Obviously, they could not have been more wrong. Even after the nuclear weapon test, China (and Russia) still played the moderating voice, all but ensuring that resolution with any amount of sting to it would not pass a vote. This has led to a very watered down resolution that eliminates the possibility of military action, and even softens the economic impact.


Another reason why China needs to take an active part in fixing this situation, and likely the only reason that they have addressed it even to extent that they have, is that China has arguably the most to lose in a nuclear North Korea. The same could be said of a North Korea thrown into turmoil over conflict, collapse, or severe destabilization. If there ends up being chaos in North Korea after some kind of conflict or collapse, there will be an uncontrollable flood of refugees. The refugee problem is most likely the strongest reason for China supporting North Korea's leadership. And yet, a refugee flood seems like it would be least of China's problems.

The worst of the problems would like in controlling the movement of nuclear material and other weapons of mass destruction. According to Scott Stossel in an article he penned for Atlantic Monthly, North Korea is believed to have just about every chemical and biological weapon you have ever heard of. What happens to those if chaos ensues?

Finally, the last thing the Chinese need is an arms race in Asia. It has widely been noted that North Korea's actions could cause Japan's new leadership to consider modifying their constitution to allow for nuclear testing. The cycle could then go something akin to what Fred Kaplan posted in Slate: "If Japan goes nuclear, the Chinese might decide that it's in their security interests to resume nuclear testing. China's moves could incite India to accelerate its nuclear program, which would almost certainly compel Pakistan to match that effort. The South Koreans, meanwhile, might feel they need their own bomb to deter any crazy ideas from their northern neighbor, which could push the cycle into still higher gear."

So given that China has propped up North Korea's leadership for the better part of 50 years and has acted to shield it from the world's scorn, what do they do to mend the dilemma they have created and live up to the responsibility of a dominating force in the region? Certainly more than weakened resolutions and lukewarm agreements with their "partners" in the Security Council.

Perhaps if We're Nice, They'll Go Away

 

This is the attitude that South Korea has taken over the last decade with respect to their neighbors to the North. They coddle their rogue neighbor, perhaps hoping that taking a diplomatically conciliatory stance, they will avoid confrontation. But here is the problem: South Koreans act as if they are dealing with a rational regime.

In reality, the South is playing with a tiger who is just biding his time before he bites. They pet the tiger with talk of reunification and diplomatic niceties, then run and peer from behind a rock. Seeing that they are not attacked they go another step. They feed the tiger with "humanitarian aid". Forget the fact that this aid completely bypasses those they are intended to help. Peer from behind a rock and wait. They walk side by side with the tiger at the opening Olympic ceremonies. Peer from behind a rock. And finally, and most painfully, they jeer at the tiger's enemy, the US. Peer from behind a rock.

Now, I fully understand that the United States has far less at stake than the South Koreans. The South shares a border, and waits day-to-day, moment-to-moment for the time when the leadership of Korea will decide (on a whim) to go on the attack. And I understand the "win more flies with honey" approach is an attractive option when two people sharing the same penninsula are ethnically and historically bound.

But for the South Koreans to continually lash out at those who are the only barrier between them and the fifth largest miliatry in the world - insanity combined with nuclear capability - is foolish and wrong. For the South to provide aid and comfort in the face of short, medium, and long-range missle tests is foolish and wrong. And for the South to talk of reunification in the face of threats to their national security (and the security of the entire region), is foolish, wrong, selfish, and, frankly, demonstrates an obliviousness to the facts on the ground.

A few facts:

• The North has a military of over 1.08 million personnel; South Korea has less than 686,000 (plus an additional 17,000 US troops whose presence the South Koreans continuously protest).
• The North spends about 25% of their GNP (the largest percentage in the world) on their miliatry.
• The North likely has the world's second-largest special ops force, specifically targeted "behind enemy lines" operations.
• The North has twice the number of aircraft as the South

Get the feeling that, even if you leave out the nuclear capabilities, the North has an edge on the South? Get the feeling that the South should be a little more careful about who they alienate?

And yet, the South coddles. It's lax attitude toward the North is extremely unhealthy. Not only because they are alienating the only nations that can effectively protect their interests, but also because they risk isolation themselves.

Opinion: The recent missle tests should be a wake up call to South Korea. They need to stop defending the North. They need to stop sending the North aid. They should cease calls for the US to halt our "hardline" stance. They should strengthen their relationship with the international community that opposes the North. They should take the same stand as the rest of the world, who has less at stake, against North Korean provocations.

In a nutshell: They need to understand who the enemy is, and who their friends are. And based on that, the South should reconsider whether, in bitting the hand that feeds them, they risk a nasty tiger bite themselves.